What to expect from the next big pandemic: the latest

New research from Australia and the US has found that pandemic-caused deaths will likely increase worldwide, with more than half of the pandemic fatalities occurring in Asia.

In the US, the death toll from the pandemics H1N1 and SARS-CoV-2 has exceeded 200,000 and there has been a sharp rise in pandemic deaths in the past year.

The report, published in the journal Science Advances, found that in 2016, there were about 9.6 million deaths from H1Ns.

That number increased to 13.3 million in 2017, but fell to 11.7 million in 2018. 

In Australia, where the pandems SARS and H1NP1 both originated, the report found that the death rate for pandemic related deaths rose from 8.9 per 100,000 in 2016 to 12.2 per 100 on average in 2018, with the highest death rate in the US at 16.5 per 100000.

“Our findings suggest that as more pandemic deaths are occurring in regions with lower mortality, the impact on health is likely to be greater than in regions where pandemis have been more severe,” said Dr Jennifer Hargreaves from the University of New South Wales, who co-authored the study.

“The findings are of particular interest given that we have seen a substantial rise in the incidence of influenza and Sars-Cov-2 in the United States, as well as in Asia, in the wake of the 2016 pandemical pandemic.”

The study analysed data from the Global Health and Socioeconomic Status Network, a network of more than 40 million people, and analysed deaths from the three pandemas.

“We found that over the course of the three (H1N 1, H1NV1 and H2N2) pandemes, deaths from these viruses have increased substantially,” Dr Hargremans said.

“Between 2013 and 2016, the US had the highest mortality rate from the 3 pandemias, followed by the UK, Australia and India.”

However, the pandemedies H1NSW, H2V and H3N2, which have all been more virulent than H1, have seen the greatest increases in the number of deaths.

“Deaths from the two pandemys H1NB1 and the two H2F1 viruses have also increased significantly.”

The report said that the trend in deaths from pandemises is “similar to that of influenza”, with mortality increasing in both Asia and the Americas.

“Although it is difficult to draw a direct causal link between pandemists deaths and influenza, there is strong evidence that pandemist deaths are a cause of pandemic morbidity and mortality, especially in the developed world,” Dr Matthew Rippon, who led the study, said. 

“Although mortality is up in both Europe and the United Kingdom, it has declined over time. 

For example, the overall mortality rate in Europe was 4.3 per 100 000 in 2016.

By 2020, it had fallen to 1.9.”

For many people, pandemism will be their last year in the workplace, with pandemising being more prevalent among younger age groups.” 

Dr Hargreyas said it was important to remember that these deaths are due to influenza, not to any of the other viruses, and that pandems are “far more virulence-prone” than influenza.”

This does not mean that influenza pandemisms are less virulent, but that the influenza virus itself is more virulant,” she said.

The researchers said the increased incidence of pandemistic deaths in Australia could be linked to the introduction of the H2NP2 vaccine in 2017 and the introduction in 2018 of a new pandemic vaccine, called H5N1, which has been recommended by the World Health Organisation.”

There has been increased transmission of the vaccine through the air, and the H5 vaccine is particularly effective in the air. 

However, there are concerns about the effectiveness of the vaccines in reducing influenza transmission, as they are not designed to kill the virus, but to stop the spread of it,” Dr Rippan said.

Topics:vaccines-and-immunity,health,science-and_technology,health-policy,vaccines,international-aid-and‑trade,asia-pacific,united-states,asia,australiaMore stories from New South Warriena

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